Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$132
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 21:36 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on which company owns the AI model with the highest rank on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Only models listed under “Models” with style control off and without the “AutoEval” tag count toward the ranking. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day on October 31 or assume any top-ranked model qualifies regardless of its AutoEval status.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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