Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 12:31 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 03:22 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 01:06 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 15:04 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 05:48 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 02:20 UTC | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 01:06 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 15:36 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 15:29 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 21:07 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 20:54 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 12:17 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 11:07 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 10:21 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 09:35 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 07:46 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 06:58 UTC | 94% |
| 20 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 04:33 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 95% |
| 19 Sept, 23:58 UTC | 95% |
| 19 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 95% |
| 19 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 95% |
| 19 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 96% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Xi Jinping physically enters US land or water before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if he does not enter that territory within the deadline. Readers often mistake flying over US airspace for a visit, but only physical entry onto land or water counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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