2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$637k
Total volume$10.5M
Liquidity$4.1M
Resolves4 Nov 2026
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs when Democrats control the Senate and Republicans control the House after the 2026 midterm elections. The No outcome applies to all other combinations of party control for these two chambers. Readers often mistake the date of the general election in November 2026 as the final deadline, but runoff results that occur later also determine which party holds each seat.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%