Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 2%−2
24-hour volume$97k
Total volume$9.1M
Liquidity$259k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 22:13 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 20:45 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 19:49 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 14:44 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 11:54 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 10:29 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 09:43 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 08:52 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 20:44 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 17:34 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 17:19 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 11:50 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 10:07 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 09:52 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 00:40 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 11:04 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 22:00 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 00:31 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 17:41 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:00 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the lowest price on a one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle falls to $45,000 or below between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the resolution source, assuming prices from other exchanges or different trading pairs count toward the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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