NewsMarkets

Markets

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$42k
Total volume$198k
Liquidity$76k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
0%50%100%99%27 Sept, 02:58 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now99%
3 Oct, 22:23 UTC99%
3 Oct, 21:57 UTC99%
3 Oct, 21:03 UTC98%
3 Oct, 20:43 UTC98%
3 Oct, 18:29 UTC99%
3 Oct, 16:32 UTC99%
3 Oct, 15:54 UTC99%
3 Oct, 15:20 UTC99%
3 Oct, 14:34 UTC99%
3 Oct, 14:05 UTC99%
3 Oct, 12:43 UTC99%
3 Oct, 12:08 UTC99%
3 Oct, 10:49 UTC99%
3 Oct, 08:30 UTC99%
3 Oct, 07:00 UTC99%
3 Oct, 03:19 UTC99%
3 Oct, 02:09 UTC99%
3 Oct, 01:55 UTC99%
3 Oct, 01:14 UTC99%
3 Oct, 00:42 UTC99%
3 Oct, 00:03 UTC99%
2 Oct, 23:24 UTC99%
2 Oct, 22:02 UTC99%
2 Oct, 21:55 UTC99%
2 Oct, 18:33 UTC99%
2 Oct, 15:16 UTC100%
2 Oct, 13:55 UTC99%
2 Oct, 11:29 UTC99%
2 Oct, 06:37 UTC99%
2 Oct, 03:02 UTC99%
2 Oct, 02:30 UTC99%
2 Oct, 02:23 UTC99%
2 Oct, 01:59 UTC99%
1 Oct, 23:18 UTC99%
1 Oct, 19:12 UTC99%
1 Oct, 16:21 UTC99%
1 Oct, 14:21 UTC99%
1 Oct, 09:23 UTC98%
1 Oct, 08:55 UTC98%
1 Oct, 08:11 UTC98%
1 Oct, 07:41 UTC98%
1 Oct, 07:02 UTC98%
1 Oct, 02:36 UTC98%
30 Sept, 22:51 UTC98%
30 Sept, 21:08 UTC98%
30 Sept, 20:39 UTC98%
30 Sept, 19:53 UTC98%
30 Sept, 19:24 UTC98%
30 Sept, 16:36 UTC98%
30 Sept, 16:09 UTC98%
30 Sept, 15:08 UTC98%
30 Sept, 14:50 UTC98%
30 Sept, 13:38 UTC98%
30 Sept, 13:00 UTC98%
30 Sept, 02:21 UTC98%
29 Sept, 20:49 UTC99%
29 Sept, 19:02 UTC99%
29 Sept, 18:54 UTC99%
29 Sept, 16:31 UTC99%
29 Sept, 16:15 UTC99%
29 Sept, 14:44 UTC99%
29 Sept, 14:06 UTC99%
29 Sept, 13:58 UTC99%
29 Sept, 11:35 UTC99%
29 Sept, 11:28 UTC99%
29 Sept, 06:54 UTC99%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC99%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC99%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC99%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC99%
28 Sept, 09:57 UTC99%
28 Sept, 09:26 UTC98%
28 Sept, 04:36 UTC98%
28 Sept, 03:50 UTC98%
28 Sept, 01:36 UTC99%
27 Sept, 18:06 UTC99%
27 Sept, 17:59 UTC98%
27 Sept, 17:13 UTC98%
27 Sept, 16:44 UTC98%
27 Sept, 16:23 UTC98%
27 Sept, 15:31 UTC99%
27 Sept, 12:55 UTC98%
27 Sept, 03:33 UTC98%
27 Sept, 03:26 UTC98%
27 Sept, 02:58 UTC98%

Does the market have this right?

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Flavio Bolsonaro advances to the runoff or wins the first round outright. It resolves to No if he fails to reach the second round or if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date itself rather than the late-2027 resolution cutoff.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 99%
  • No 1%

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market