Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces physically enter any of the specified districts within Aden Governorate by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. The outcome depends on actual physical presence rather than threats, announcements, or naval activity offshore. Readers often mistake diplomatic visits or claims of entry for the required military occupation.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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