US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 13:07 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 09:43 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 11:48 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 04:19 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 01:17 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 12:53 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 10% |
| 19 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Oct, 02:35 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 22:14 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 20:39 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran jointly announce acceptance of a specific deal that commits Iran to allow more shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such confirmed agreement is announced by that deadline. Readers often mistake ongoing negotiations or general support for an actual, binding agreement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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