Explosion Shuts Venezuela's Second-Largest Oil Refinery
An explosion at the facility has forced it to suspend operations.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 74% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 68% |
| 28 Sept, 18:24 UTC | 59% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 7 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 7 October at 02:23 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- At least 1.1M bpd — the market puts it at 74%, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 13 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September reaches at least 1.1 million barrels per day. The resolution depends on data in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after that month.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi At least 1.1M bpd 74% +6
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In this story
- Venezuela