Ethan Hawke and Russell Crowe Star in Depression-Era Drama The Weight
The film follows a convict father's dangerous mission to reunite with his daughter during the Great Depression.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 10% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 1 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 1 October at 15:15 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Ethan Hawke — the market puts it at 10%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Ethan Hawke receives a nomination for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if he does not receive such a nomination. Readers often mistake the release of the film or its critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
- Ethan Hawke — the market puts it at 1%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Ethan Hawke wins the Best Actor award at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake other acting nominations or wins for this outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Ethan Hawke 10%
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Ethan Hawke 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Ethan Hawke
- Russell Crowe