Colorado River Shrinks as Lake Mead Hits Historic Low
Water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell have dropped to their lowest points in nearly 90 years, highlighting the severe shrinking of the Colorado River.
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 11% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 1 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 1 October at 15:55 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Above 1039 Ft — the market puts it at 11%, closing 7 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Lake Mead's water level at the end of December 2026 exceeds 1039 feet. The outcome is No if that specific measurement falls at or below 1039 feet. Readers often mistake the date, confusing the end-of-month deadline with the current daily reading.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Above 1039 Ft 11%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Colorado River
- Lake Mead
- Lake Powell
- Southern Nevada Water Authority