Republican party
Why it moved: +4 points at 12:42 UTC, after The Hill: Republican-aligned PAC spends $1.2M to boost socialist — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 56% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 56% |
| 19 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 52% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is sworn in as an Ohio Senator for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if that specific condition does not happen. Readers often mistake the timing of the election or the current officeholder for the resolution criteria, but only the person sworn in for the 2029 term counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 56%
- No 44%