A'ja Wilson
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$298k
Liquidity$298k
Resolved1 Dec 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if A'ja Wilson wins the Women's Pro Basketball Most Valuable Player award for the 2026 season. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the resolution source, assuming any MVP title counts rather than only the designated Women's Pro Basketball award.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%