Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate
The market favoured Yes at 64% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$993
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolved22 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +34 points at 19:02 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Fed’s Musalem Signals Rates Should Rise Next Six-to-Nine Months — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 65% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%