At least 48%
Why it moved: +10 points at 16:13 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Khanna to campaign in Nebraska with Senate candidate Dan Osborn — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 80% |
| 20 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 70% |
| 15 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 63% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Troy Jackson receives at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 48%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the debate dates mentioned in the linked story, but the resolution depends solely on the certified final vote count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 80%
- No 20%