At least 52%
Implied probability 20%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 01:15 UTC | 34% |
| 15 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 69% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Susan Collins receives at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from official election results, not early polls or projections. Readers often mistake the deadline for when votes are cast rather than when they are officially certified.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%