Madonna
Implied probability 1%−11
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves27 Sept 2027
Why it moved: +25 points at 02:55 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: Taylor Swift Wins Video of the Year at 2026 MTV VMAs, Extends Her Record — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 08:52 UTC | 10% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Madonna wins Best Visual Effects at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the linked story about her opening performance for the actual voting result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%