Fraud
Implied probability 99%+99
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +93 points at 16:13 UTC, after The Hill: Watch live: Trump, Vance announce Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 94% |
| 20 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 93% |
| 19 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if JD Vance explicitly uses the word "Fraud" during the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not use that specific word in that context. Readers often mistake the date of the announcement as the only requirement, ignoring the strict condition that Vance must actually say the word "Fraud.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%