Iran / Iranian
The market favoured Yes at 76% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$603
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 99% |
| 17 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 91% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if JD Vance uses the words Iran or Iranian during the CBS town hall originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. The outcome is No if he does not use those specific terms in that broadcast. Readers often mistake the linked news event about his wife's death as the trigger, but only the specific words spoken during the town hall matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%