Before Nov 1, 2026
Why it moved: +7 points at 11:17 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: US sets new demands for Iran deal: What are they? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting between now and November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such meeting occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution criteria rather than waiting for an actual official meeting.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 74%