Spain
Implied probability 79%+5
24-hour volume$157k
Total volume$203k
Liquidity$203k
Resolves8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 77% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 06:33 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 14:20 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 84% |
| 2 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 83% |
| 1 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Oct, 22:06 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Sept, 23:32 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Sept, 12:02 UTC | 81% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
Spain must win the UEFA Nations League match against Croatia within the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. The outcome does not depend on extra time or penalty shootouts. Readers often mistake the final result after extra time as the deciding factor, but only the score at the end of regulation time counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 79%
- No 21%