Ireland
Implied probability 48%+1
24-hour volume$76k
Total volume$86k
Liquidity$86k
Resolves6 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 48% |
| 4 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 05:31 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 49% |
| 30 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 51% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Ireland must win the UEFA Nations League match against Israel within the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time, for the outcome to be 'Yes'. The result does not depend on extra time or penalty shootouts. Readers often mistakenly believe that a draw or a win in extra time counts toward the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 48%
- No 52%