Above 50.25 million
Why it moved: +3 points at 09:26 UTC, after The New York Times: United’s C.E.O. Says It Should Cost More Not to Sit in the Middle Seat — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 51% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 48% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if United Airlines reports carrying more than 50.25 million passengers in its third quarter of 2026. It resolves to No if that number is 50.25 million or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked news story about airfare for the actual metric, but only the official passenger count matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 51%
- No 49%