Above 1.9 million
Implied probability 10%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves31 Mar 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 16:20 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Tesla Inc. reports a total production figure above 1,900,000 units in 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2025 or assume any reported number counts, but only Tesla's official report for the full year of 2026 matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%