Above 1.75 million
Why it moved: +3 points at 02:20 UTC, after The Verge: Here’s the Tesla Semi… again — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 78% |
| 25 Sept, 02:20 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Sept, 01:47 UTC | 75% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla reports more than 1,750,000 total vehicle deliveries during the entire year of 2026. It resolves to No if that number is 1,750,000 or fewer. Readers often mistake the start of production for the delivery count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%