Above 465000
The market favoured No at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +33 points at 13:55 UTC, after Quartz: Tesla posted 486,532 deliveries in third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 55% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 22% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla Inc. reports total production above 465,000 units for the third quarter of 2026. It resolves to No if that reported figure is 465,000 or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about Q3 deliveries as the source of truth, but only Tesla's official Q3 2026 production report determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 55%
- No 45%