SpaceX / SPCX
Implied probability 57%+27
24-hour volume$997
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 00:50 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Sept, 22:06 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 17:14 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 08:12 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 05:16 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 00:49 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Sept, 00:17 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 20:25 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Sept, 18:00 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 35% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 36% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 35% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 07:56 UTC | 24% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions SpaceX or SPCX before October 1, 2026 at 12:00 am ET. It resolves to No if he does not make such a statement by that deadline. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 57%
- No 43%