Prediction Market / Predictive Market
Implied probability 4%+1
24-hour volume$668
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 13:21 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump uses the phrase "Prediction Market" or a variation of it between September 28, 2026 at 8:15am ET and October 5, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date of the linked news story rather than the specified future window.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%