At least 8
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$37k
Total volume$91k
Liquidity$91k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump visits at least eight distinct US states during September 2026. It resolves to No if he visits fewer than eight distinct states in that month. Readers often mistake the current campaign tour for the official count, but only visits meeting the specific VISITAREA rules count toward the total.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%