Fraud
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +95 points at 16:27 UTC, after The Hill: Watch live: Trump, Vance announce Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 95% |
| 19 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions fraud during his Oval Office announcement on October 20, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not say the word or if the event does not occur as scheduled. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about a whistleblower program for the actual resolution trigger.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%