Crypto / Bitcoin
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$136k
Total volume$202k
Liquidity$202k
Resolved3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 05:01 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions Crypto or Bitcoin during his Midterm Rally in Greenville, North Carolina. The event must take place on October 20, 2026, as originally scheduled for the mention to count. Readers often mistake any general economic speech for this specific rally or assume a different date applies.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%