ICE
Why it moved: −4 points at 18:55 UTC, after The Hill: Appeals court rules California can't require ICE to show visible ID — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 88% |
| 14 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 83% |
| 14 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 87% |
| 13 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 90% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions ICE during his Midterm Rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, which is originally scheduled for October 14, 2026. The outcome depends solely on whether he uses the term ICE while speaking at that specific event. Readers often mistake the original date for a fixed deadline, but the resolution relies on the actual occurrence of the rally and his speech content.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%