Deport / Deported / Deportation
Implied probability 1%−32
24-hour volume$76k
Total volume$80k
Liquidity$80k
Resolves21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 22% |
| 7 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 21% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses the words "Deport," "Deported," or "Deportation" during his Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas. The event must be the rally originally scheduled for October 7, 2026. Readers often mistake any other speech or location for the triggering event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%