America First
The market favoured Yes at 65% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$160k
Total volume$166k
Liquidity$166k
Resolved17 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 37% |
| 2 Oct, 23:44 UTC | 20% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump says "America First" during his rally in Vandalia, Ohio on October 3, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not use that specific phrase at this event. Readers often mistake the date of the originally scheduled rally for the only valid deadline, ignoring that the market depends on the actual occurrence of the speech.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%