AI / Artificial Intelligence
The market favoured No at 68% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$275k
Total volume$282k
Liquidity$282k
Resolved16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 19:16 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 14:28 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 11:02 UTC | 58% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions artificial intelligence during his Midterm Rally in Mobile, Alabama. The event must take place on October 2, 2026, or on a rescheduled date for that specific rally. Readers often mistake the signing of any voluntary AI accord as sufficient, but only spoken remarks at this specific rally count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%