Jay Clayton
The market favoured Yes at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +28 points at 15:58 UTC, after TechCrunch: Trump unveils his new Super Intelligence Force — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 85% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 87% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the White House announces Donald Trump's selection of Jay Clayton as AI czar after the issuance date and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistakenly believe that any mention of Jay Clayton in relation to AI policy counts toward resolution, but only an official White House announcement of his selection as AI czar matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 85%
- No 15%