Yes
Implied probability 83%+20
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 83% |
| 30 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 83% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 88% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Sept, 11:11 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Sept, 19:46 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 62% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any Source Agency reports that the Trump administration issued rebates of at least $100 to at least 100,000 people before November 3, 2026. The market resolves to No if this specific threshold is not met by that deadline. Readers often mistake the initial removal of enrollees for the required rebate issuance.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 83%
- No 17%