Above 4.9%
Implied probability 13%−36
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$24k
Liquidity$24k
Resolves28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 50% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tencent’s text market share exceeds 4.9% during the week of September 21, 2026. The data source is OpenRouter, and the measurement applies specifically to model authorship. Readers often mistake the launch date of a new app for the relevant metric or deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%