Above $1.84 trillion
Implied probability 94%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves5 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 94% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if total U.S. student loans outstanding in the fourth quarter of 2026 exceed $1.84 trillion. The official source for this data is the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit release. Readers often mistake the headline date or other loan forgiveness announcements for the resolution criteria, but only the specific Fed report for that quarter counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 6%