Before Oct 15, 2026
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved15 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +99 points at 22:10 UTC, after RSS: News: Willie Nelson, Yo La Tengo Endorse James Talarico — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 0% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%