Above 58
Implied probability 80%−11
24-hour volume$31
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 80% |
| 2 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 88% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 91% |
| 30 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 19:01 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 56% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Carbon Arc Netflix App Downloads for September 2026 exceed 58. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the resolution date for the download month.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 80%
- No 20%