Indianapolis
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$167k
Liquidity$167k
Resolved12 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 08:25 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 02:24 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 00:26 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Marvin Harrison Jr. joins the Indianapolis Colts before November 12, 2026. It resolves to No if he signs with any other team or if that deadline passes without a deal. Readers often mistake the linked headline as proof of the trade, but only an official signing with Indianapolis counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%