New York G
Implied probability 99%+44
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$19k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Why it moved: +39 points at 19:18 UTC, after SkySports: Giants trade for McCarthy after Dart injury — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 60% |
| 27 Sept, 13:39 UTC | 99% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if J.J. McCarthy joins a New York Giants roster before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not join that specific team by that date. Readers often mistake the linked trade headline as proof of the event, but only an official roster move counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%