Stays with Houston or Retires
Implied probability 99%+1
24-hour volume$859
Total volume$64k
Liquidity$64k
Resolves21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 99% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Kevin Durant’s next team is Houston or he retires before October 21, 2026. The outcome is No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked story about VanVleet for the relevant event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%