Stays with Cleveland or Retires
Implied probability 99%+1
24-hour volume$38
Total volume$109k
Liquidity$109k
Resolves21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 98% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if LeBron James stays with the Cleveland Cavaliers or retires before October 21, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistakenly believe the outcome depends on his current team (the 76ers) rather than his status relative to Cleveland by the deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%