Above 2.3%
Why it moved: +20 points at 22:02 UTC, after Bloomberg Technology: Encouraged by Meta’s Partnerships, Says First Founder — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 21 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Oct, 21:28 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Meta's text market share exceeds 2.3% during the week of October 19, 2026. The outcome is No if it stays at or below that threshold. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the data source, but only OpenRouter's weekly model author metrics count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%