Gemini
Why it moved: −4 points at 20:17 UTC, after Ars Technica: Gemini's Personal Intelligence is coming to cars — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 91% |
| 19 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 90% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google holds the top spot for large language models on October 26, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Android Auto as the deciding factor, but only the specific ranking date matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 10%