Karen Bass, ≥4%
Why it moved: −7 points at 16:49 UTC, after The Hill: Bass trails Raman in Los Angeles mayor's race: Poll — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 37% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 4% but less than 100%. The outcome is No if her winning margin is less than 4% or if she loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked poll for the final result, but only the official election results determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%