Before Nov 1, 2026
Why it moved: +27 points at 20:38 UTC, after The Hill: FBI refutes MS NOW report Patel in Russia, posts video of Virginia event — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 35% |
| 14 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 49% |
| 14 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 50% |
| 13 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Kash Patel physically travels to and is present in Russia before November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not meet this condition by that date. Readers often mistake the source of the report for the actual event, but only his physical presence counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%