Category 3 or higher landfall
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$24k
Total volume$56k
Liquidity$56k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 2% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 2% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 2% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Category 3 or stronger hurricane makes landfall in the Northeast United States between October 6, 2026, and December 31, 2026. The event must be officially reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center. Readers often mistake the wind speed threshold, forgetting that only Category 3 or higher storms count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%