Category 4 or higher landfall
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 17:32 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 8% |
| 6 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Category 4 or stronger hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Keys) between October 6, 2026, and December 31, 2026. The outcome depends on an official report from NOAA's National Hurricane Center confirming the event within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the start date for October 5 or assume any wind speed qualifies without a confirmed landfall.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%